Northern Prairie Forests Regional Integrated Assessment: Vulnerability Assessment and Landscape Modeling
This presentation describes an integrated regional climate change assessment currently underway on a forested landscape in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. Partners include the forestry companies Weyerhaeuser and Edgewood Forest Products in Saskatchewan as well as Louisiana-Pacific Canada and Spruce Products Limited in Manitoba. The governments of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also involved. Funding has been provided by the Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program and in-kind contributions have been offered by the partners.
This webinar covers two components of the project: landscape modelling and vulnerability assessment. The LANDIS-II forest ecosystem simulation model, which provides estimates of tree biomass, harvestable timber, caribou habitat, spruce budworm impacts and forest fire activity under both current and future climates, is used for the modelling tasks. The future scenario was based on the RCP8.5 emissions pathway and was represented by downscaled data from the CanESM2 global climate model, as provided by the University of British Columbia ClimateNA software.
The vulnerability assessment was made following the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning framework and practitioner’s guidebook. This approach is based on a more general one developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and modified to apply to Canadian sustainable forest management practices. The framework provides a structured decision-making approach for mainstreaming climate change into sustainable forest management planning and practices in which research scientists work closely with forestry decision makers throughout the assessment process. Preliminary results of the assessment specific to the landscapes and the companies involved will also be provided.